Page 12 - CSA Speaker Bulletin May 2017 | CSA Celebrity Speakers
P. 12
EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW
INTERVIEW:
NOREENA HERTZ
Noreena Hertz is a renowned looks likely to strengthen over coming and Dollar - neither of which have
thought leader and economist weeks given that the calling of a certain trajectories right now - each of
with an impressive track record General Election is viewed positively which affect the value of sterling.
in predicting global trends. by currency traders who see it as
She has advised some of the massively increasing the odds of a Q.You say that “this
world's leading business and "softer" Brexit. But will it continue to is an age of radical
political figures on strategy, rise? Not necessarily. It's important to uncertainty”, can you
economic and geo-political remember that the kind of Brexit the UK expand upon this.
risks, digital transformation, ends up with is not Theresa May's gift.
Generation K and millennials. So any rumbling, grumbling or hardball There are two main strands to this
posturing from Brussels, EU ministers, – political risk and technological
Q.With the recent or negotiators over coming weeks and disruption.
triggering of Article 50, months is still likely to affect the pound.
what do you think the Rumblings and grumblings within the Can you think back to a time in recent
economic future is for Britain Conservative party will also have an history in which politics globally has
over the next two years and into impact. Then of course there's the Euro been so unpredictable?
the future?
In Europe a number of elections loom -
Assuming that Brexit will go ahead the France, the UK, Germany - the results of
consensus amongst economists is that which are at this time simply impossible
it's likely to come at a cost. How big to call but whose outcomes could
a cost remains a question given how affect the very future of Europe itself.
radically uncertain the environment is. The unknowns around Brexit are many
Key factors that will affect this include – we’ve already discussed some of
the outcome of the UK General Election, these. When it comes to the US it’s very
the outcome of the French and German unclear how a Trump presidency will
elections, what happens to the pound, play out domestically. Whilst profound
what kind of post Brexit trade deals the reform of the tax code and a massive
UK manages to strike, how the financial programme of de-regulation have
services sector is affected and the been proposed, it's not certain which
ultimate position of the UK government of his policies Trump will be able to get
on migration. All of these are impossible through Congress. And will he even last
right now to predict with certainty. the course? Bookmakers are currently
offering odds of 1/1 that the President
Take the pound. Whilst it fell markedly will either resign or be impeached
after the Referendum vote it now before the end of his term.
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