Page 17 - CSA Speaker Bulletin January 2017 | CSA Celebrity Speakers

EUROPE IN 2017
A PIVOTAL
ELECTION
YEAR FOR
EUROPE
After the tumultuous events
of 2016 - the Brexit vote in
the UK and the Trump victory
in the US - one should probably
be careful with making too firm
predictions for what lies ahead in
2017.
A year ago I judged the probability of
Brexit at 50/50, but shared the view of
most that a victory for Donald Trump
was far less likely.
This year will see important elections
in the Netherlands, France and
Germany. And there is little doubt that
it is the presidential election in France of the countries European policies,
that has the greatest disruptive
potential.
Were - against the odds - Marine Le
Pen to enter the Elysée there is little
doubt that the EU faces a challenge
even worse than the coming exit of
the United Kingdom. And we should
not underestimate the possibilities she
might have in a race against François
Fillon. His more realistic economic
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policies might be an attractive target
for her ruthless populism.
In the meantime we will see the
beginning of the negotiations on the
terms for the UK exit in early 2019.
But more important than these talks,
difficult as they might be, will be when continent. And much here will also
the UK finally decides what type of
new relationship it is seeking with the
EU. And until they have made that
decision even informal talks on a new
relationship will hardly be possible.
The German elections in September
are certainly important, but less likely against the Muslim world - moving
to result in any fundamental altering
on which there is a fair degree of
consensus in the countries.
But questions of refugees, integration
and terrorism will loom large both
in these elections and across the
depend on how the new Trump
administration handles the acute
challenges in Syria and in the battle
against Daesh.
If the US embarks on something
that can be labelled a crusade
the US embassy to Jerusalem, among
other things - there is a risk of
heightened long term security threats
to Europe. n
Carl Bildt is the Chair of the
Global Commission on Internet
Governance and the former
Prime Minister and Minister for
Foreign Affairs for Sweden
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