Page 17 - CSA Speaker Bulletin January 2017 | CSA Celebrity Speakers
P. 17



After the tumultuous events                policies might be an attractive target    on which there is a fair degree of
            of 2016 - the Brexit vote in   for her ruthless populism.                consensus in the countries.
            the UK and the Trump victory   In the meantime we will see the
in the US - one should probably            beginning of the negotiations on the      But questions of refugees, integration
be careful with making too firm            terms for the UK exit in early 2019.      and terrorism will loom large both
predictions for what lies ahead in         But more important than these talks,      in these elections and across the
2017.                                      difficult as they might be, will be when  continent. And much here will also
                                           the UK finally decides what type of       depend on how the new Trump
A year ago I judged the probability of     new relationship it is seeking with the   administration handles the acute
Brexit at 50/50, but shared the view of    EU. And until they have made that         challenges in Syria and in the battle
most that a victory for Donald Trump       decision even informal talks on a new     against Daesh.
was far less likely.                       relationship will hardly be possible.
                                                                                     If the US embarks on something
This year will see important elections     The German elections in September         that can be labelled a crusade
in the Netherlands, France and             are certainly important, but less likely  against the Muslim world - moving
Germany. And there is little doubt that    to result in any fundamental altering     the US embassy to Jerusalem, among
it is the presidential election in France  of the countries European policies,       other things - there is a risk of
that has the greatest disruptive                                                     heightened long term security threats
potential.                                                                           to Europe. n
Were - against the odds - Marine Le
Pen to enter the Elysée there is little                                              Carl Bildt is the Chair of the
doubt that the EU faces a challenge                                                  Global Commission on Internet
even worse than the coming exit of                                                   Governance and the former
the United Kingdom. And we should                                                    Prime Minister and Minister for
not underestimate the possibilities she                                              Foreign Affairs for Sweden
might have in a race against François
Fillon. His more realistic economic

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